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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-13T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2017 Sep 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 11-Sep 13 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 11-Sep 13 2017

            Sep 11     Sep 12     Sep 13
00-03UT        3          3          4     
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        2          2          5 (G1)
12-15UT        2          2          4     
15-18UT        2          3          4     
18-21UT        3          4          6 (G2)
21-00UT        4          4          5 (G1)

Rationale: G2 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(Sep 13) under combined influence of a positive polarity CH HSS and
possible glancing blow effects from the 10 Sep CME.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2017 Sep 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to an X8 flare (R3-Strong) at
10/1606 UTC, from old Region 2673 (S09, L=119) after the region had
rotated around the W limb of the solar disk. Associated with the event
was a 1,900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity of 928 km/s), and an asymmetric full halo CME
signature. A magnetic crochet was observed on solar-facing magnetometers
during the X8 flare as well as an EIT wave propagating across the solar
disk in SDO/EUV 193 imagery beginning at 10/1557 UTC. Due to the source
region's location at the time of the eruption, approximately 3 degrees
around the W limb, a vast majority of the ejecta is not directed at
Earth. After detailed analysis it has been determined that a possibility
exists for a glancing blow enhancement late on day three (13 Sep) as a
result of this large solar event. The remaining numbered sunspots lacked
significant flare activity and were stable.

Lead Time: 40.02 hour(s)
Difference: -22.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-09-11T03:25Z

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